The benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices are likely to open marginally lower on September 20 as trends in the GIFT Nifty indicate a negative start for the broader index with a loss of 21 points.
The BSE Sensex declined 242 points to 67,597, while the Nifty50 slipped 59 points to 20,133 and formed a bearish candlestick pattern minor upper shadow on the daily timeframe in the previous close. Technically, the current chart pattern indicates a ‘bearish tri-star’ kind of candlestick pattern, which is a bearish reversal pattern, but not a classical one.
Further weakness from here could confirm short-term top reversal for the Nifty at 20,222 levels, Nagaraj Shetti, technical research analyst at HDFC Securities said. He feels the underlying short-term trend of the Nifty placed at the verge of reversal on the downside.
The pivot point calculator indicates that the Nifty may be taking support at 20,118, followed by 20,099 and 20,068. On the higher side, 20,179 can be an immediate resistance, followed by 20,197 and 20,228.
GIFT Nifty
The GIFT Nifty indicates a marginally negative start for the broader index with a loss of 21 points. GIFT Nifty futures stood at 20,078 points after making a high of 20,110 points.
US Markets
Stock futures were calm on Tuesday evening as Wall Street geared up for the latest interest rate decision and economic update from the Federal Reserve. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up less than 0.1 percent each.
The muted moves come before the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy decision, which is due out on Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but investors will be paying close attention to the summary of economic projections and the press conference of Fed chair Jerome Powell for clues about what might happen in the months ahead.
“The number one thing we’re watching for, and what investors are looking for, is where are longer term expectations: Where is that terminal rate,” said Dylan Kremer, co-chief investment officer at wealth management firm Certuity.
“And ultimately we expect to downplay any inflationary items that have come out recently, such as the oil markets,” he added. Trading has been mostly quiet so far this week, seemingly on hold ahead of the Fed meeting. On Tuesday, the Dow shed just over 100 points, or 0.3 percent, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.2 percent each.
European Markets
European markets were lower Tuesday, with investors looking ahead to the start of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day monetary policy meeting. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was 0.15 percent lower in late afternoon trading, with sectors spread across tentatively positive and negative territory. Retail stocks made the biggest losses, down 1.6 percent, while banks and oil and gas stocks were both up around 1 percent.
Investors are widely anticipating that the US central bank will hold interest rates steady when they announce their latest policy decision on Wednesday and will be assessing the move to get a better sense of the central bank’s stance on inflation. Decisions are also due this week from central banks in the UK, Switzerland, Turkey and beyond.
Asian Markets
Asia-Pacific markets are set to extend losses from Tuesday as investors await China’s one-year and five-year loan prime rates and brace for the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision Wednesday stateside. The region also saw August trade data out from Japan, while wholesale inflation in South Korea jumped for the first time since July 2022.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell marginally, while the Topix was also hovering near the flatline. Japan’s trade deficit in August narrowed by two-thirds on a year-on-year basis, while imports and exports recorded a smaller fall than expected.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.11 percent, but South Korean markets bucked the trend, with the Kospi gaining 0.1 percent and the Kosdaq up marginally. Futures for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index stood at 17,980, lower than the HSI’s last close of 17,997.17.
Sashidhar Jagdishan re-appointed as HDFC Bank MD & CEO for next three years
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has approved the re-appointment of Sashidhar Jagdishan as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of HDFC Bank, the lender said in a communication to exchanges on September 19. The re-appointment is for a period of three years with effect from October 27, 2023 to October 26, 2026, the bank said. A meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank will be convened in due course to give effect to the re-appointment, it added.
The RBI had first approved the appointment of Jagdishan as CEO of HDFC Bank for a period of three years from October 27, 2020, when he took the charge from Aditya Puri. Jagdishan joined country’s largest private sector bank in 1996 as a manager in the finance department and became business head – finance in 1999 and was later appointed as chief financial officer in 2008.
PSU stocks’ rally may press govt for disinvestment as election spend squeezes fiscal space
PSU stocks are back in the limelight with the recent rally, potentially pressurizing the government for disinvestment in the run up to 2023 state elections and 2024 general elections, said Jefferies.
“The heavy election calendar may exert pressure on the government to boost social spending, with schemes to bolster annual transfers to farmers, expansion of health insurance, and interest subsidy on home loans, among others. In order to meet the rising expenses, a sharp PSU rally raises chances of disinvestment in the near-term,” the brokerage firm said in a note by Mahesh Nandurkar.
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the S&P BSE PSU index has rallied 25 percent, led by triple-digit returns from Mazagon Dock (up 186 percent), Rail Vikas Nigam (up 149 percent), and IRCON International (up 144 percent), during the same period.
So far in fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24), the government has collected Rs 5,600 crore worth of disinvestment receipts, showed data from the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management (DIPAM). Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics, Rail Vikas Nigam’s offer for sale (OFS) processes, and other remittances helped compile this amount.
RR Kabel may list with 10-15% premium on Sept 20, despite OFS caution from analysts
The stock of consumer electrical products manufacturer RR Kabel is likely to list with a 10-15 percent premium over the issue price of Rs 1,035 on September 20, analysts projected, based on the impressive response to its public issue and the positive sentiment in the equity market. Subdued financials and 90 percent OFS portion in the offer may, however, limit the upside for the stock, they mentioned.
Backed by the prevalent bullish trends in the market since the successful T+3 listing of Ratnaveer Precision Engineering last week, RR Kabel is set to be the first to debut in the T+2 timeline against Sebi’s new T+3 timeline, which is made applicable in two phases – voluntary for all public issues opening from September 1 and compulsory from December 1.
The RR Kabel IPO was subscribed 18.69 times during September 13-15, with major support from qualified institutional investors who bought 52.26 times the allotted quota. High net-worth individuals and retail investors had bid 13.23 times and 2.13 times their reserved portions.
Asia’s export slump to see long, drawn-out bottoming-out: Nomura
The slump in Asian exports will see a long, drawn-out bottoming-out process with the coming of a synchronised global downturn, according to Nomura’s index on Asia exports. Nomura’s leading index of Asia ex-Japan’s aggregate exports, or NELI, is comprised of nine forward-looking components and has a three-month lead time. In its latest report on Asia exports, the brokerage said, “NELI remains in consolidation mode. Its latest reading of 82.1 for October remains historically low and is a slight dip from September.”
Oil Prices
Oil prices jumped more than $1 on Tuesday, signaling a fourth consecutive session of gains as weak U.S. shale output compounded supply concerns from extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Global benchmark Brent crude futures were up $1.24, or 1.31 percent, to $95.67 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.92, or 2.1 percent, to $93.40.
Prices have gained for three consecutive weeks, with both benchmarks reaching their highest since last year. “This crude price rally apparently doesn’t want to stop,” said OANDA analyst Edward Moya. “The oil market will likely be tight throughout the winter.”
Dollar Index
The Dollar index traded 0.06 percent lower in futures at 104.79, whereas the value of one dollar hovered near Rs 83.11.
Gold Prices
Gold held near a two-week peak on Tuesday, helped by a pullback in the dollar, although prices were stuck in a narrow range as focus turned to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting for updates on the interest rate outlook and economic projections. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,934.10 per ounce after hitting its highest since September 5 earlier in the session. US gold futures gained 0.2 percent to $1,956.80.
FIIs and DIIs
Foreign institutional investors (FII) sold shares worth Rs 1,236.51 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) purchased Rs 552.55 crore worth of stocks on September 18, provisional data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) showed.